Good afternoon,
Some folks in the chat this morning asked if they could get a copy of the presentation from our morning show.
We covered a lot in the morning session — from trading around the 20-day simple moving average, to the financial health scores that help you avoid landmines and find high-quality momentum trades, especially as volatility begins to surface in new corners of the market.
I’ve included the key slides below — along with a bit of added context and commentary that didn’t make it onto the deck.
This is the technical backbone of everything we talked about today.
The 20-day simple moving average (20-SMA) isn’t just a technical curiosity. It’s a behavioral anchor — fund managers, CTAs, and algos treat it as a dynamic support/resistance level.
If price is above it, that tends to trigger trend-following flows and momentum buying.
If price breaks below, funds often move to cash or flip to short exposure.
A lot of people dismiss simple trend signals like the 20-SMA as “too basic.”
But the academic literature disagrees — and has for decades.
The key point here is that moving average strategies outperform random timing. They work across markets and timeframes, especially when paired with fundamentals.
You don’t need complex indicators.
You need tight rules and fast decision-making.
As I said on the show, a tight stop — around 2% below the 20-SMA — gives you control.
It’s not about being right every time. It’s about staying small when you’re wrong and leaning in when the setup is right.
The 20-day SMA gives us a clean signal for timing — but once that trigger hits, you still need to ask: is the stock worth holding?
That’s where these metrics come in. They help you assess financial strength, balance sheet stability, and the odds that a company can actually follow through when momentum shows up. I’m not looking for perfection — just strong fundamentals and no red flags.
The Piotroski F-Score
This one’s all about financial strength.
The F-Score gives you a simple way to assess whether a company is improving — operationally, financially, and strategically.
If a company scores 8 or 9 out of 9, that’s a sign of solid financial health — not just value on paper, but value with traction.
To check an F-Score, just Google the ticker symbol and the words “F-Score.”
GuruFocus and UncleStock typically have it listed. You’ll need an account for full access, but many scores are free on search.
The Altman Z Score
This one gauges bankruptcy risk — pure and simple.
A score above 2.6 = healthy.
A score below 1.8 = warning sign.
When you pair the Z-Score with the F-Score, you get a much clearer view of who’s safe and who’s skating on thin ice.
The Beneish M Score
This one’s forensics.
It was designed to catch companies cooking their books — before the fraud becomes obvious.
When the M-Score crosses above -2.22, it’s time to dig deeper.
Some of the biggest blow-ups of the last two decades gave M-Score warnings well before the collapse.
The Ohlson O Score
Sometimes the Z-Score isn’t enough — especially in mixed-asset or capital-intensive businesses.
The Ohlson O-Score gives another take, using logistic regression to estimate bankruptcy probability.
It’s useful across sectors and flags trouble that other models might miss — especially when paired with revenue deterioration.
The S Score
This one’s a bit more proprietary — it’s used by quants and hedge funds to identify short-squeeze setups.
Think of it as a pressure gauge.
You won’t find a public “S-Score,” but you can build your own version just by watching these metrics.
Stocks with long days-to-cover and rising momentum can spike violently when liquidity flips.
The point of today’s session wasn’t just to throw more indicators at you — it was to show how price action and fundamental structure can work together.
The 20-SMA gives us a clean signal.
The F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, O-Score — those give us confidence in the quality of what we’re trading.
And in this kind of market, quality matters.
Use these tools to filter out the noise, tighten your risk, and give yourself a clearer edge.
We’ll keep refining the process from here, particularly as shifting volatility continues to shape how and where opportunity shows up.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin
P.S. We’ll dig into more of this tomorrow — including how to combine these metrics with live setups and what to watch as volatility picks up. Bring your questions, and we’ll slow it down where we need to.