Good morning,

Gold broke $5,200 this morning. Consumer confidence collapsed yesterday to the lowest level since 2014. Below COVID lows. And the S&P is sitting at all-time highs near 7,000.

Something doesn't add up.

The Expectations Index dropped to 65.1. That's well below the 80 threshold that usually signals recession ahead. It's the 12th straight month below that line. People are worried about jobs, worried about prices, worried about what's coming next.

Meanwhile, the market keeps climbing.

This is exactly the kind of disconnect that precedes big moves. Not saying which direction. Just saying the tension is building, and today might be when it snaps.

Powell speaks at 2:30 PM. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla report after the bell. Whatever direction this thing breaks, it's going to be violent.

And right now? Momentum gave us nothing. Intraday pressure pulled back from +8 yesterday to flat overnight. On the S&P, nine stocks breaking out, nine breaking down. A coin flip. Nobody wants to lean the wrong way before Powell has the microphone.

The one thing worth watching: FNGD broke down another 3.5% yesterday and slipped under its 20-day moving average. If it pushes through the 50-day, we can start thinking about taking shots further out. We're not there yet. But it's the right direction.

Patience is the play until around 3 PM. That's when the algos decide whether Powell's language matches expectations. That's when the market actually commits.

I'll be live on Market Masters at 8:45 AM to walk through what's moving and what actually matters. Then I'll be back at 2 PM for Powell.

This is one of those days where showing up live matters.

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See you in 15 minutes

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin