Good morning, Traders:
Yesterday, we had a great session, talking about the stocks we want to aim at in breakdown conditions.
Yesterday, we had another bounce off the 5,500 level – a key test that will set the tone for the coming month. Are these markets making sense… or what?
Once again – we hit a zero-buying pressure day – something I outlined yesterday.
So, seeing a bit of a bounce in the Monday trading session wasn't too stunning.
But Tuesday brings another animal.
This is the final day before Tariffs go into effect. And that could bring a crazy amount of volatility, notes TheoTrade’s Don Kaufman.
What’s on tap today?
Let’s discuss…
Investors aren’t very optimistic at the moment. The clue is that insiders are again not buying their own stocks. This chart from SECForm4.com shows us that selling has outpaced buying pressure for the last month.
Insiders are clearly concerned about the impact of trade policy on their companies. And even with a dip in the markets dating back to February -one that has rivaled other selloffs before major insider buying sprees – now is very different.
As I’ve also noted - we have no major support on the horizon from the Federal Reserve.
This will pressure risk assets like U.S. equities for the foreseeable future.
The key is for us to keep a close eye, not on what the insiders are doing…
But what the algorithms are doing….
Which brings us to this stunning chart…
And there it is—a perfect representation of panic selling to start Monday trading on the last day of the quarter. The S&P 500 slumped right at 9:30 and bounced off the third standard deviation band of the Volume-Weighted Average Price.
That was right at the key support level of 5,500.
What happened next?
Low volume bidding and a reversal.
Today, I’m going to walk you through the importance of having these bands up. If you miss the selloff, don’t worry about trying to trade around the standard deviation. Instead, we want to focus only on that Blue Line—the Volume-Weighted Average Price.
Buy as it moves up across the Blue Line, and sell if any, only if it drops back under the blue line.
I’ll show you again how to set up these tools.
This is going to be EXTREMELY important in the next two weeks.
Why? Because earnings season is fast approaching.
And you’ll see this sort of price action take place quite often.
Selloffs to start the trading day… followed by surprising turnarounds as algorithms buy and shorts can get squeezed…
When you join me at 8:45 ET, I’ll walk through the most important and tradable headline of the day… —this time, we’re focused on one BIG name: Tesla (TSLA).
We’ll talk about all the sectors that are negative right now… and how the materials sector is again facing pressure.
Finally, we’ll look at the stocks breaking out… and breaking down.
I can’t wait to see you soon.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin
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