Good morning:
Let’s dive into what we’ll discuss at Market Masters at 8:45 this morning…
TSMC Just Handed the Market a Fresh Catalyst
TSMC blew the doors off expectations. Revenue, margins, and guidance were all scorching. They guided 30% sales growth for 2026, expect 63–65% gross margins, and said customers are begging for more capacity.
TSMC is the spine of the semiconductor supply chain. When they're humming, it signals the tech cycle has another leg. Tech strength is real today. Semis stay bid. These earnings set a tone for Q1… This is one reason why you need to learn about 0DTE options to trade the Nasdaq and more…
Don Kaufman joins us at 9:30 to trade the open and talk about zero-dated options. 0DTEs are options that expire same day and have the potential to explode in value. Don is going to show us how to trade them this morning. Join us at this link.
China May Restrict NVIDIA's H200. The US Just Hit Chips With 25% Tariffs.
China drafting purchase rules for the H200 (Nikkei) collides directly with Trump's 25% tariff on advanced chips and a potential expansion into broader semi tariffs.
You're getting a two-front policy storm in semiconductors. China is trying to control the Nvidia supply. The US is trying to throttle Chinese demand.
This is bullish for TSMC, ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, PLAB, and non-China supply chains.
Bonds Are Quiet. The Fed Parade and Claims Are Next.
Treasuries are sideways, waiting for weekly claims, the NY Fed survey, and speeches from Fed members… Bostic, Barr, Barkin, and Schmid.
Trump also said he won't remove Powell. Markets like when adults stay in the room.
Today's session is a data-light, sentiment-driven trade until 8:30 ET and Fed-speak hits.
Iran Tensions Cool. Crude Dumps. Gold Softens.
Trump says Iran has "no plan" to execute protestors. Explosion reports look dubious.
The near-term risk premium comes from crude and gold. Crude is lower, while gold is sitting at $4,620/oz.
Energy is giving back the geopolitical bid. Precious metals are backing off the fear trade. Energy equities may underperform today. Copper weakness is more China-sentiment driven than structural.
China Stimulus Is Quietly Big. Markets Aren't Reacting.
PBoC just cut relending rates, loosened down payments, and expanded tech-innovation quotas. China is quietly turning the liquidity taps. This normally supports commodities and risk assets, but Chinese equities are not responding. That's the tell.
Watch for delayed upside in metals. But for today, the market is saying stimulus is nice, but growth is still weak.
We’ll be live at 8:45 here covering these stories… and we’ll have The Runner - our list of breakout and breakdown stocks - at 9 am.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin