Yesterday Don warned that the market was getting complacent.
Today the indexes are rallying right back into that complacency on softer oil headlines.
Futures are up across the board this morning. Oil pulled back below $104 after the Hormuz strait partially reopened to commercial shipping, and both Pfizer and Anheuser-Busch beat their numbers. The headline tape is clean.
But Palantir is down 2% after a beat that should have been a layup, with revenue growth its fastest since IPO and full-year guidance raised. That is the kind of reaction that does not match the news.
Don has been flagging this all week. Geopolitical risk is back on the table, the A/D line is getting uglier under the surface, and NVDA is doing more and more of the work holding the indexes up.
Today's tape is the test. Either the rally absorbs the warning signs and keeps going, or the cracks Don has been pointing at start to widen.
He is walking through it live in Market Masters at 9:20 AM ET. Expected move on SPX, the levels on NVDA that change the read, and the earnings setups that matter most this week. That includes Palantir's reaction, AMD tonight, and CoreWeave Thursday.
Ten minutes is all you need before the open.
— TheoTrade