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Good morning,
Drones struck the US Embassy in Riyadh overnight. QatarEnergy just shut down the world's largest LNG facility after Iranian strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and Trump says this could last four to five weeks.
Futures are down 1.6% on the S&P and over 2% on the Nasdaq and Russell. European natural gas ripped 45% in a single session. Brent's over $83. The VIX blew through the top of the range again and is sitting around 26.
Monday's dip-buying rally already feels like it happened a week ago. We clawed back most of the gap-down by the close... and then lost it all overnight as the conflict escalated.
Here's the part that's getting drowned out by the war headlines: the bond market isn't treating this as a safety trade. Yields went up. The 10-year climbed to 4.09% this morning. That's not how it usually works when a war starts. The market is more worried about what $80 oil does to inflation than it is about finding a place to hide.
All three of my momentum readings are negative. Energy is the only sector in the green. But conflict tends to be a buying opportunity... and we're probably closer to a policy response than most people think.
I'll walk through what I'm watching and how I'm positioning. CrowdStrike reports tonight and the cybersecurity narrative just picked up a serious real-world tailwind.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin