By the time most traders see the story…
The move is already over.
Position before the headline hits 👉Live at 12PM EST
Good morning Market Masters,
Happy Friday.
Six stories today and a lot of weekend risk to manage.
Here's what we're covering…
BLOCK SURGES +20%
SQ is having its biggest day since the IPO. Triple catalyst: blowout Q4 earnings across Cash App and Square, significant job cuts, and a full AI pivot replacing human roles with AI agents. The market loves the margin expansion story.
This is the template going forward.
Cut headcount, deploy AI, expand margins.
Every fintech CEO is watching this move today.
SOFTWARE vs SEMIS ROTATION
The most crowded trade in the market is unwinding.
Software shorts are at a 7-year high, longs at a 7-year low. Yesterday, software outperformed the S&P by 380 basis points…
That was the biggest day since Nov 2022.
Goldman says "the exit could prove tight."
IGV at $84 resistance. Close above that, and the squeeze door opens.
IRAN STRIKE DECISION
Trump is convening senior advisers today. Reports say the question is no longer whether but scope and targets. CENTCOM has already briefed on military options. Geneva talks ended without a deal but with "unprecedented openness."
Binary weekend risk…
A strike = crude spikes, gold spikes, risk-off Monday.
Breakthrough leads to the complete opposite.
TECH SELLOFF / DELL SURGES -
NVDA fell -5.5% despite beating everything.
But Dell is +10.7% pre-market, with $64B in AI orders, a $43B record backlog, and an FY27 guide that crushed consensus.
PBOC + CHINA STIMULUS
FX risk reserve ratio cut from 20% to 0%.
Politburo signaling "more active fiscal policy."
Two Sessions next week with AI/EV/grid stimulus expected. Base metals firmer.
BRRRRRRR….
With Your RUNNER…
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin