You can let the next shock rattle you.
Or you can have a trade that expects it.
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Good morning:
The long national nightmare around Repo is over… for now…
Markets are stabilizing a bit… People are buying SoftBank stock (because they hate their money?), and we’re ready to go live in about 15 minutes.
What’s on tap today?
First… The Dollar Takes a Dive
Trump has delayed tariffs (again), and the dollar got punched in the face.
Europe rallied as a result... Exporters and commodity names are catching a bid, but FX desks are watching for a nasty unwind in carry trades.
The AI Trade Hits a Wall or Breaks Through It?
NVIDIA, Palantir, and Super Micro wobbled. Seems that breadth is toast.
All the while, Michael Burry’s out here buying puts like it’s 2008 again.
The question: Is the AI hype cycle finally out of gas, or just catching its breath?
We’ll show you the ways to answer this question…
$65 Trillion in Derivatives Volume… But Who’s Driving This Bus?
Tradeweb’s October volume is up 44% year over year.
What on earth is going on here?
That’s not investing… That’s plumbing pressure.
When flows are this big, the smallest mis-hedge can light up the VIX.
That’s why we have to talk about volatility…
Finally Oil Bounces, But Fundamentals Are Still Fragile
Saudi price-cut chatter offset weak global oil demand.
Energy’s still the two-way trade of choice.
Play the volatility, not the headlines. Buy the pipelines… not the hype…
Grab your caffeine and hedges…
And as always, your Runner at 9 am…
Garrett