Good morning,

Axios just dropped a report that the Trump administration is much closer to a major war with Iran than anyone on Wall Street is pricing in.

We're not talking about a limited strike here. Their sources are describing a massive, weeks-long military campaign, jointly planned with Israel. The nuclear talks in Geneva ended yesterday without a deal. Both sides called them "substantive but difficult." And tomorrow, Iran and Russia will conduct joint naval drills in the Sea of Oman.

The tension is rising fast, and the market is barely paying attention. We’ll see what happens today or if this is just a trial balloon report to gauge public opinion…

Meanwhile, on the other side of the tape, NVIDIA and Meta just announced one of the biggest AI infrastructure deals we have ever seen.

Meta is buying millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs from NVIDIA as part of a multi-year partnership. They are also deploying Grace CPU servers and planning to roll out Vera CPUs in 2027, which is a direct threat to Intel and AMD. This deal validates the AI buildout thesis at a time when many were starting to doubt it.

So you have got war risk on one hand and the largest GPU deal in history on the other.

Gold is bouncing back toward $5,000 after yesterday's pullback.

Palo Alto Networks is tanking, down 7% premarket after cutting guidance. Berkshire just slashed its Amazon stake by 75% and opened a new position in the New York Times.

And the FOMC minutes drop at 2 PM, which will tell us how the Fed is really thinking about rate cuts this year.

There is a lot to sort through.

Join me this morning on Market Masters at 8:45 ET, and we will break down all of it together.

What is real, what is noise, and where the trades are.

See you there.

Garrett