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Good morning, Traders,
Be there.
The market is bouncing hard this morning.
The Dow just crossed 50,000. The Nikkei hit an all-time high overnight.
Bitcoin recovered from last week’s crash and is back above $70,000.
Gold is above $5,000…
But Goldman’s top trader just warned: “the setup remains fragile… hedge and size down.” We need to talk about this.
Goldman says “the setup remains fragile.”
Factor volatility is at the highest level since 2021.
Hedge fund shorting is at RECORD levels since 2016.
Shorts outpaced longs 2.5:1 last week.
Goldman’s top trader says hedges make sense and to run smaller.
We’ll break down exactly what this means for your trades this week.
Dow 50,000. Nikkei all-time high. Asia at records.
S&P jumped 1.7% Friday. Japan’s Nikkei surged 5.7% overnight after PM Takaichi’s landslide victory. Kospi up 4%. Samsung popped 6.4% on HBM4 news. The question: is this a real breakout or just a squeeze that fades? We’ll walk through the setups.
Gold is back above $5,000.
Dip-buyers returned after last week’s crash from all-time highs. PBOC extended gold purchases for a 15th month.
Goldman and Deutsche Bank both say buy the dip. Plus: China is injecting $456 billion in liquidity for the Lunar New Year. We’ll cover the metals setup.
Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000.
After crashing 16% last week and briefly breaking below $61K, BTC has staged a full recovery. Risk appetite is back. But Goldman warns factor vol is still elevated. Is this the bounce to buy or the calm before another leg down?
NVIDIA earnings preview: Goldman sees a $2 billion beat.
GIR expects $67.3B vs consensus $65.5B. Five of seven Mag 7 names are below pre-print levels. NVDA is the last catalyst to break the tech logjam.
Plus, it’s a massive earnings week: DDOG, SPOT, SHOP, CSCO, APP, ABNB, AMAT, ANET, COIN. We’ll preview all of them.
Big week ahead. Lots of opportunities. Let’s find them together.
The show starts in 15 minutes.
See you in there.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin