Good morning, Market Masters,
Trade talks hit their climax TODAY while markets coil ahead of tomorrow's inflation bombshell. This is where fortunes pivot.
If only there were a show… starting in 15 minutes… that will cover these key stories…
Today’s Power Play And Tomorrow’s Catalyst
Here’s what on tap…
1. We Hit Mission Critical on Trade
London trade negotiations enter the endgame.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's "going well" comment sparked yesterday's chip rally (AMD +4%, ARM +4%), but today's the real test. Semiconductor export controls against rare earth access. Someone needs to blink by close or markets get nervous.
What retail will do WRONG: Chase yesterday's chip rally
What I'm watching: Any headline after 10 AM could whipsaw tech 2-3% either direction.
2. This is a Big CPI Report
Markets pricing 63% odds of September cut…
But we know things can go wrong fast.
One hot print tomorrow changes everything.
Today's positioning tells you EXACTLY what smart money expects.
What retail will do wrong: Ignore Treasury signals
What I'm watching: Watch today's Treasury flows and VIX behavior. Institutions are placing their bets NOW.
3. The Commodity Surge Continues
Silver hit 13-year highs at $36.60 (funds piling in pre-CPI)
Gold gained another 0.4% overnight. Markets are getting defensive
Oil is creeping higher on trade optimism and CTOT data.
What I’m Watching: Commodity strength and muted equities is a sign of inflation hedge positioning
Your Tuesday Action Plan:
Opening 15 min: Gauge overnight positioning shifts
10:00 AM: Trade talk headline watch begins (Look for VWAP moves)
11:00 AM: 3-year Treasury auction preview (Will the Fed engage?)
1:00 PM: Don's precision setup for volatile markets (the kind of system that thrives on this chaos)
2:00 PM: Afternoon momentum setups (Look for VWAP moves)
3:30 PM: Power hour positioning for tomorrow's CPI
Today’s Session…
Today sets the table, tomorrow serves the meal. Miss today's positioning and you're playing catch-up in chaos.
Trade deal progress = Tech moon mission resumes
Trade talks stall = Risk-off rotation accelerates
No news = Choppy drift into CPI
There's a strategy built for exactly these binary moments. Don's walking through it at 1 PM.
Tomorrow's CPI Scenarios:
Hot print and Fed hawks = June rally dies
Cool print and Trade progress = SPX 6,300 by Friday
In-line: Look to sell the news after initial pop
See you in 15 minutes.
Garrett Baldwin
TheoLive: Market Masters