Something weird is happening.
The S&P closed near all-time highs yesterday.
The Nasdaq just logged its longest winning streak since 2021.
Meanwhile...
Trump's literally blockading Iranian ports.
Oil's still hovering near $95.
And banks are reporting mixed results.
So what's actually going on?
Is the market pricing in peace?
Or ignoring the risks entirely?
Here's what we know:
Trump said yesterday another round of Iran talks could happen "in the next two days."
JD Vance, who led the first round in Pakistan, sounds optimistic.
But the U.S. military is STILL enforcing the blockade.
No ships getting in or out of Iranian ports.
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving again... barely.
And oil prices are holding below $100 for now.
But sanctions waivers on Iranian AND Russian oil just expired.
Which means supply could tighten fast if this drags on.
Meanwhile...
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report earnings today.
JPMorgan already showed trading desks are printing money off this volatility.
(Goldman's did too.)
But JPMorgan also cut guidance.
Wells Fargo missed entirely.
And luxury brands like Hermès and Kering are getting crushed in Europe... blaming the Iran conflict for tanking demand.
Yet ASML (chip equipment supplier) just RAISED its outlook.
Because AI demand isn't slowing down.
So...
Tech's ripping.
Banks are mixed.
Luxury's getting destroyed.
And the market's acting like peace is already priced in.
But IS it?
Or are we setting up for a rug pull the second talks stall?
They'll walk through:
→ What's ACTUALLY happening with Iran (and why the market's ignoring the blockade)
→ Why banks are beating... then cutting guidance
→ The sectors getting crushed vs. the ones still ripping
→ And what comes NEXT if this rally keeps going
This is the kind of session where you either understand what's driving the market...
Or you're just along for the ride.