Good morning,

I spent last night going through every line of the NVIDIA earnings report, and I am bringing you the full breakdown on the show this morning.

The Good, the Meh, and the Whoa.

The short version: $68.1 billion in revenue, 73 percent year-over-year growth, $120 billion in net income for the full year.

The numbers are absurd. I’ll go through all of it this morning.

But NVIDIA is not even the scariest story today.

UBS just put out what I would call an apocalyptic note on private credit. Their head of credit strategy, Matthew Mish, is now forecasting private credit defaults to surge to 15%.

A record. The trigger is rapid AI disruption to leveraged tech and business services. This was their tail-risk scenario a month ago. It is now becoming the base case.

On the geopolitical front, the third round of Iran-US nuclear talks in Geneva is producing positive rhetoric. The Omani mediator says both sides have welcomed proposals. Iran met with the IAEA director, which is a critical step for any deal. Crude is down 1.5 percent. But Rubio says Iran is a grave threat, and VP JD Vance says they see evidence of a nuclear weapons program. Two tracks running at the same time.

The Bank of Japan is caught in a tug-of-war with itself. Yesterday, Takaichi nominated doves to the board, and the yen sold off. Today, Governor Ueda and hawk Takata pushed back hard, reiterating the hiking bias.

The Nikkei hit a new all-time high above 59,000 and then pulled back.

This tension is not going away.

NVDA earnings breakdown, private credit crisis, Iran talks, BoJ tug-of-war, and EU sentiment cracking.

Five stories all connected, and I walked through every one of them this morning at 8:45 AM ET on TheoTrade. GDP revision and jobless claims are also out today, and PCE inflation hits tomorrow to close the week. This is a day you want to be locked in.

See you there.

Stay positive,

Garrett