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Good morning, Traders:
After Friday's bloodbath, we woke up to something different. Not a full recovery.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves… but signs of life where it matters.
SPY momentum has shifted to yellow.
That's "improving…" We’re not bullish yet, but the selling pressure is easing. NASDAQ and Russell are still red, so this isn't an all-clear. The large caps are stabilizing first, which is the typical pattern after a flush.
Let's start with the headline…
Palantir is up 10% premarket.
They crushed Q4… CEO Alex Karp is calling it, "the best results I'm aware of in tech in the last decade." Their US commercial guidance is even more explosive: 115% growth expected.
PLTR was on our Double Oversold list yesterday, down 17% year to date. Well, the rebound came…
Metals are rebounding hard.
Gold is up 5.5% to $4,921. Silver is up 9% after its worst day since 1980. Is this a dead cat bounce? Maybe. But Deutsche Bank says "investor intentions in precious metals have not likely changed for the worse." The underlying drivers are central bank buying and ETF inflows. When you see a 30% flush followed by a 9% snap-back, that's institutional repositioning, not retail messing around.
Speaking of commodities, here's a story flying under the radar…
Project Vault. Trump announced a $12 billion strategic minerals reserve.
It’s the first of its kind. The goal is to counter China's dominance in rare earths.
Copper is rebounding too, up to $ 13,480 per ton, amid reports that China may expand its strategic copper reserves. When governments start hoarding critical minerals, prices follow.
The US-India trade deal is bigger than the headlines suggest.
Yes, tariffs dropped from 25% to 18%. But the real story is India committing to stop buying Russian oil and purchasing $500 billion in US products. That's geopolitical realignment, not just trade policy.
Quick note on the calendar: Friday's jobs report is postponed.
Today's JOLTS is postponed too. A government shutdown means the BLS can't release data. A funding deal should pass today or tomorrow, but until then, we're flying blind on employment numbers.
Globally, the risk-on signals are flashing. Nikkei hit a record high above 54,000. Memory chips are bouncing… NXP Semiconductors beat earnings. And in a notable twist, OpenAI is reportedly seeking alternatives to NVIDIA chips because they're "unsatisfied with the speed" for ChatGPT. That's a crack in NVIDIA's moat worth watching.
Today feels like the reflex bounce.
If SPY can hold these gains and NASDAQ shifts to yellow, we might have something.
Until then, stay nimble. Wait for confirmation. Don't be a hero.
We'll break down PLTR's numbers, the metals rebound, and whether this bounce has legs.
Garrett Baldwin