Let's be cautious about silver's track record.
It's the friend who shows up to the party three hours late, makes a scene, then disappears for six months. Yes, it's volatile. Yes, it can run. But it's also been "about to explode" since approximately 2011.
Trade it if you must, but remember, only trade it ABOVE its 20-day moving average...
And if you missed the most recent wave… wait. There will be another. Don’t just chase.
5. A Trade as Old as Disappointment
Let’s keep going with silver… Because I own a bunch of it.
Crescat Capital's chart shows the gold-to-silver ratio approaching 100, which historically means silver should outperform.
The chart goes back to the 1970s, showing this pattern playing out before.
Smart money is positioning for mean reversion.
Here's the thing about mean reversion trades: they work great except for the part where you have to time them. This is why I say that the optimal time to make a trade is when the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) crosses above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average… Not when it’s overbought on both the Relative Strength Index and the Money Flow Index like it is today…
Silver doesn't follow gold… it stumbles after it like a drunk wedding guest.
When it works, you look brilliant.
When it doesn't, you're explaining why you own a metal that's been "coiled like a spring" since the Obama administration.
6. The $300 Trillion Debt Bomb Nobody Wants to Discuss
That Bravos Research chart should be terrifying. Global debt just crossed $300 trillion, accelerating since 1997 like a hockey stick designed by an economist on too much ADHD medication....
We've entered the "numbers are just concepts" phase of monetary policy. $300 trillion is so abstract it might as well be measured in unicorns.
Central banks say they're "monitoring the situation," which is code for "we're hoping inflation bails us out before anyone does the math."
The only debate left is whether we inflate it away slowly or all at once.
7. China's Manufacturing: The Engine Sputters
Finally… China.
The Caixin PMI just printed its worst reading since September 2022, breaking below the crucial 50 line.
For those keeping score, that's contractionary territory in the world's factory. The chart shows a clear downtrend that even the most optimistic China bull can't ignore.
Yet markets are pricing in another stimulus miracle.
They’ll probably get it. But I still think that a currency devaluation is coming.
Deglobalization isn't a theory anymore. It's showing up in the data.
That said…
China is becoming one of my favorite trades. And I’ll explain how to do it tomorrow.
Tomorrow, I’ll be at Market Masters at 8:45 am. Be sure to join us live here…
And check out the TheoTrade blog for insights from traders like Blake Young, Brandon Chapman, and Corey Rosenblum.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin