What if you could see the market’s next big move before it made headlines?
That’s exactly what the Dark Wire delivers…
Detecting explosive trades hours before Wall Street reacts.
Good afternoon, Traders:
Here’s my halftime report as we continue our frantic race toward tomorrow’s rate announcement. Here’s what’s on our minds…
Fed Meeting Day 1
The Cut Everyone Expects
Markets have the 25bp cut fully baked in (with a small 50bp tail). The dollar is sliding, gold has just printed fresh highs, and equities are struggling to find direction.
The real game tomorrow: dot plots and Powell's tone on the year-end trajectory.
We’re looking at a vulnerable U.S. dollar with no real panic in the money markets. Instead, we continue to focus on gold and miners thanks to the dovish skew.
Retail Sales Beat
Goldilocks or Price Mirage?
August arrived hot on retail sales. This keeps the dream of a soft landing alive.
But dig deeper… We see that price effects are meeting a softening labor market.
This hot report doesn't stop the cut, but might cap the pace if demand stays this sticky.
Monitor consumer discretionary spending against the dispersion of staple goods.
We want to fade knee-jerk moves.
Funding Plumbing
SOFR Tightens Into Tax Season
SOFR rose to ~4.42% (above the IOER) as banks bid on Fed repo for $1.5B.
This isn’t a crisis, but the September tax/coupon dynamics, combined with bill supply, are tightening the screws.
Today's 4/8/17 auction is worth watching.
Join Me Live Today at 3 PM ET.
I'll be breaking down the Fed playbook and mapping out specific trades (rates steepeners, gold upside, and a retail stocks) for tomorrow's announcement.
It’s worth every penny of… well, whatever you decide.
Let’s get ready the biggest trading day of the year…
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin