Things On My Mind (Live at 8:45 ET)

Take Me To the Live Show at 8:45 ET

Dear Fellow Trader:

Markets are coming off their best week since mid-April, with the S&P 500 up 4.5%, Dow up 2.5%, and Nasdaq leading with a 6.7% gain.

However, futures were pointing lower today, suggesting that some caution was returning to the markets.

Investors will be particularly focused on whether Big Tech earnings can maintain momentum after Alphabet's strong results helped drive the rally last week.

This week also brings a packed economic calendar alongside crucial earnings reports from tech giants that could significantly impact market direction.

Keep an eye on the setups around expected moves — there's a lot of opportunity when you know what numbers the market is really watching.

Let’s look at the schedule…

Corporate Earnings This Week:

• Monday: Domino's Pizza, MGM Resorts, Waste Management

• Tuesday: Coca-Cola, First Solar, PayPal, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, Starbucks, Visa

• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, ADP, Caterpillar, Qualcomm, Robinhood

• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, CVS, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald's, Reddit

• Friday: Chevron, Exxon, Cigna, Apollo

Economic Data News:

• Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

• Tuesday: Job openings, Consumer confidence

• Wednesday: Q1 GDP (forecast: 0.1% vs. 2.4% prior), PCE inflation data

• Thursday: ISM Manufacturing, Initial jobless claims

• Friday: April jobs report (forecast: 133,000 jobs vs. 228,000 prior)

  Here’s what’s on tap for our show today…

Momentum Monday

What’s the state of momentum after last week’s rally?

You know the answer, as we saw a rally kickoff last week.

However, let’s examine a ticker that offers a different perspective.

The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM).

We’re seeing strength in this ETF, with recent breaks above its 20-, 200-, and now 50-day SMA. All while its 50-day moving average is below its 200-day moving average.

We need to keep an eye on the names that comprise this ETF…

We’ll check those names and more as we kick off today’s trading session.

Breakouts and Breakdowns

Momentum is all about the strength of the trend. For now, it’s returned, and investors and traders are trying to play catch-up. We’ll keep a close eye on the number of stocks breaking down and breaking out.

The surprise: The total collapse in selling pressure over the last week.

And with so much riding on this week’s earnings, knowing where the real pivots are hiding could be the difference between chasing moves and catching them early.

I’ll take you through our measures and give you a list of key names to trade as conditions shift.

But you have to be in the room…

Sector Check Ups

We’ll start the week with a dive into the sectors - what’s working?

What’s not? Right now, we have four sectors in positive territory… And we’re looking for ways to trade each of them. Let’s dig into our leveraged ETFs for clues on market flows.

Now… here’s something that you might not know… Sector momentum is NOT based on the S&P 500. It is based on broader measurements of many companies spread across the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.

Here’s where we stand on our sector SMA20s this morning on the S&P 500...: 

But there’s an important difference… and I’ll walk you through it.

We’ll be live… at 8:45 ET. Join us here…

I look forward to seeing you there.

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin