Futures are up this morning.
Dow futures added 240 points. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.7%.
Oil's pulling back, too. WTI futures lost 1.5%. Brent crude fell marginally.
But here's what really matters today:
The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 PM ET.
Markets are expecting them to hold rates steady between 3.5% to 3.75%. That part's basically locked in.
What's NOT locked in... is how Jerome Powell frames the Iran conflict, elevated oil prices, and what it all means for future monetary policy.
One wrong word from Powell... and this tape could flip fast.
Anthony Saglimbene from Ameriprise put it well:
"Markets continue to trade with some hesitation ahead of today's Fed decision and elevated oil prices. While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, investors will be looking to see how policymakers frame the Iran conflict in the context of inflation risks and potential impacts on the growth outlook."
Translation: Powell's tone matters MORE than the actual decision.
And Tony Rago's going live at 8:45 AM ET to walk through his full premarket playbook... BEFORE Powell takes the mic.
He's covering:
→ The key chart levels that matter heading into the Fed decision
→ His exact premarket setup for navigating the reaction
→ How he's positioning for both scenarios — dovish relief rally OR hawkish volatility spike
Whether we rip or roll over... Tony's breaking down both sides of the trade live.
Plus, we've got PPI data dropping this morning AND Micron earnings after the bell.
So yeah. It's gonna be a day.
See you there.
— TheoTrade