Good morning:
We’ve got a packed show today…
The last few days have offered a few incredible opportunities to exploit market overreactions and take advantage of market technicals.
Last Friday and Monday we had two big bounces from oversold territory on the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator. That has allowed us to focus on specific options strategies that reward the fast-fingered traders in today’s enviroment…
Including the use of Zero-Date Options (0DTE). What are those? And how can you maximize your gains using them? We’ll dive into 0DTE ahead of the market open.
The Big Headline
It was inevitable. Elon Musk has lashed out at the current “Big Beautiful Bill” and argued that it’s chock-full of waste and abuse. Combined with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s commentary that the U.S. will never default on its debt, it’s signaling game-on for this summer on new spending, deficits, and credit.
Believe it or not - that’s good news for the equity market over the long term. As we’ve explained, new credit (borrowing) and equity performance run in similar directions.
I’ll explain again how and why all roads point to monetary inflation…
In addition, I’ll share my top strategy for trading Tesla (TSLA) in the weeks ahead.
Tune In, Tune Up
Momentum remains choppy in this market, but there are stocks back in breakout and breakdown mode. This morning, we’ll go through the breakout names and track them around our favorite trading average…
Technical Time
Hang 10… Yesterday, I explained the market through surfing terminology… We’ll do that again today - explaining momentum, liquidity, and insider buying…
But there’s more for us to consider. That’s the core technical indicators we use…
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Like checking if waves are too crowded (overbought) or empty (oversold). Above 70 means everyone's already surfing this break—might wipe out. Below 30 means it's uncrowded—could catch the next set. Measures momentum like reading the lineup.
Money Flow Index: The MFI watches both wave size and the number of surfers who paddle for each one. High volume with rising prices is like locals charging big waves confidently. Low MFI means surfers are sitting outside, waiting—money's not flowing into these waves yet.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Like comparing today's swell to the weekly average. When short-term swells cross above long-term patterns, paddle hard—momentum's building. When they cross below, the surf's dying. The histogram shows how fast conditions are changing.
ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures whether you're surfing clean, powerful waves (strong trend) or choppy, confused water (no trend). Above 25 means solid, rideable waves in one direction. Below 20 is like windblown slop—no clear direction, churn.
ATR (Average True Range): If waves are two-footers or ten-foot bombs. High ATR means big, volatile swells—huge potential but dangerous wipeouts. Low ATR is small, predictable surf. It helps size your board (position) according to the conditions.
Ultimate Oscillator: Like reading three different surf reports—the dawn patrol conditions, midday update, and sunset forecast—then averaging them out. Combines short, medium, and long-term wave patterns to spot when the tide's truly turning. When all three timeframes align, you paddle out with confidence.
I’ll show you how each one works - and how wonderful things can happen when they align.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin