Hey, it’s Garrett.
There’s something brewing in the dollar, and barely anyone’s talking about it.
No, this isn’t another collapse prediction. I’m not one of those people shouting about the end of the U.S. dollar every time someone in BRICS floats an oil deal.
This is something different.
It’s technical, it’s behavioral, and it’s happening quietly under the surface.
Let’s walk through it.
Right now, the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), which tracks the dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies, just broke beneath key support. It’s been drifting lower for months, and now the cracks are starting to widen.
We’re seeing softness in long-end Treasury yields. Inflation expectations are cooling. And international central banks, from Europe to Asia, are slowly shifting out of tightening mode.
Put all that together, and the dollar has less support under it than it did six months ago.
At the same time, open interest in dollar futures has been climbing. That suggests traders are pressing bets on a strong dollar, and if they’re wrong, they’ll have to unwind fast.
This is where UDN comes in.
The Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) is the inverse of UUP. It’s a quiet ETF. Not very liquid. But it’s a great signal.
When UDN starts climbing above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, it’s been a reliable trigger for downside pressure in the dollar. And not just for a day. These moves tend to stretch over multiple weeks as capital rotates.
We’re starting to see that breakout now.
UDN has pushed back above its 20-day average, and the setup is gaining traction.
Why does this matter?
Because when the dollar weakens, a lot of things start working better.
Commodities tend to rise, including oil, copper, gold, and uranium.
International equities (especially in emerging markets) get a tailwind.
Multinationals with foreign earnings (think: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Apple) tend to outperform.
Even crypto often catches a bid as dollar dominance slips.
And if you’re a trader, or even just an investor looking for entries, spotting the moment when the dollar starts to lose strength gives you a massive edge.
This is how real money moves. Not on headlines. But on macro pivots, liquidity flows, and pressure setups that build for weeks before the market catches on.
That’s what we’re tracking with UUP and UDN.
Now let me show you how this same pressure model works at the trade level.
Tony Rago has been using this exact concept, watching for pressure, measuring compression, and timing the release, to build out a futures trading strategy with explosive upside and tight, repeatable structure.
He calls the base version the Golden Setup, and today at 1 p.m. Eastern, he’s teaching how to 10X it.
That means pairing his best signals with options, building in asymmetric reward-to-risk, and taking advantage of misunderstood volatility.
This is the same logic we’re applying to the dollar trade, but in a much faster, more surgical environment.
If you're the kind of person who likes structure, rules, and edge, you’ll get a ton out of this.
If you’ve never traded futures or don’t think you can do this, you need to see how he’s simplified it.
And if you want to see how the best setups come from the moments when nobody’s paying attention, today’s the day.
Tony’s Mastermind is live in 30 minutes at 1 p.m. ET. Click here to join the live chat.
I’ll be back live at 2:30 pm ET in the TheoTrade member room to break down any moves we see in the back half of today’s action. If you’re not already a member, there is an excellent trial offer to name your price. Click here to join the best trading community on Earth.
I'll see you at 1 pm for Tony.
Garrett Baldwin
P.S. This is the last chance to get into Brandon’s Squeeze Bars program before they close it down. If you’ve been watching from the sidelines… now’s the time. You don’t want to miss 20-for-20. Just click here to get started.
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